Has The Clock Struck Midnight on Tom Thibodeau?
Validated head coach? Yes. Proven winner? Yes. Right for this team? Unsure.
Thomas Joseph Thibodeau Jr…that’s his name, per Wikipedia. Commonly referred to as “Thibs” all across the world of basketball. He eats, sleeps, breathes, and is married to basketball. There’s no wife. There are no kids. This sport IS his life, wife, and kids. He’s dedicated. Completely.
Coach Thibs has been around the NBA after doing some coaching at his college of Salem State and later Harvard during the 1980s. He kicked off his professional career with the expansion Timberwolves as an assistant. From there you know his many stops, including as assistant coach with the Knicks during the latter portion of Patrick Ewing’s career, to his building up of the late 2000s Celtics defense, to his first Coach of the Year award with the Derrick Rose-led Bulls in the 2010s. He’s famous for his always frowning face, whether he’s screaming at officials over a blown call, or at Obi Toppin for a defensive miscue. Thibs has a lot of good on his resume.
The Latest Flavor of Thibs
But what do we think about this current version of Thibs? It’s been a roller coaster, right? One could say he was the instrumental force of the “We Here” team of 2020-2021, and the same reason they won only 37 games last year.
Here’s what I think we all know and agree upon
He’s stubborn.
He’s one of those coaches who can juice the orange—squeezing everything out of players in his system.
He’s adamant about rim protection—so much so it affects his rotations.
He loves playing his veterans, especially former Bulls he coached—which affects item 3 above.
He’s stubborn.
He typically doesn’t trust rookies/young players—especially those needing to work on defense. Obi/Quickley have endured the brunt of this.
He’s stubborn.
Notice a theme…stubborn? Thibs? No way!
Skipping over the stubborn, since it affects EVERYTHING else on the list…I’ll move on to my 2nd point. I think many of us believe he squeezed the orange of the 2020-2021 team for all it was worth. In doing so, one common theme seems constant with his successful teams. If he has a legit star (All-NBA caliber player), and a surrounding cast of young guys and/or role players, he does well. Which is simple enough but think about it. Bulls—Rose (players throughout like Noah, Deng, Boozer, Korver, Hinrich, Butler). Minnesota—Butler (Rose, Gibson, Wiggins, Towns, Jamal Crawford). NY first year—Julius, All-NBA 2nd team and you know the cast. This year and last with our Knicks? No star. Randle regressed, and this year no definite star.
Protect the Rim At All Costs
Moving onto items 3,4, & 6…they’re all relatively related (that was fun). Rim protection. He simply MUST have someone who can protect the rim for 48 minutes. Here’s the quote from training camp when asked about playing Randle/Toppin together (notice the stubborn tone):
“It’s not only the numbers, I actually watch the games. If you took out the games that were blowouts, there were one or two in particular that probably threw those numbers off. I want to be careful because it was a very small sample size. So you look at it—What do your eyes tell you in close, meaningful games when we tried it? What happened?—and those were very negative.” (credit to Zach Braziller from NY Post 9/29/2022)
This quote came AFTER being told the results last year were positive…stubborn Tom. He blatantly said that the pairing would not work. And who can say for sure? It might not. But it did against Philadelphia, when Thibs went to the pairing, seemingly reeking of desperation with no Mitchell Robinson (and no Embiid). Last year, he did everything he could to avoid the pairing—by playing Taj Gibson over giving the experimental Obi/Randle pairing playing time. In my opinion, he felt what he did in 2020-21 worked so well, he was hesitant to come off it for change.
Playing Veterans Over Youth
This leads to the next point I’m looking at…why do Thibs play veterans so much at the expense of our young group we all love? I believe this has items 4 and 6 connected. He plays the veterans BECAUSE he doesn’t trust the kids. Rose/Gibson played a LOT compared to Quickley/Toppin—in their rookie years. As far as minutes per game go, in 2020-21 Rose averaged 26.8 to Quickley’s 19. Taj averaged 20.8 to Toppin’s 11. And in 2021-22, Quickley did approach Rose’s average with 23 minutes per game compared to Rose’s 24.5 but had Rose not been injured, who knows how that plays out? Meanwhile, Obi continued to get just 17 minutes per game, while Taj was at 18. Obi only started to receive more minutes once the season was lost. The magic of 2020-21 wasn’t there.
This says nothing of continuing to play Fournier/Burks as much as Thibs did, rather than letting Quickley and whoever else get some burn. Also, how many times did Rose/Gibson/Randle get pulled for a turnover, poor shot choice, or blown defensive assignment? Regarding defense, has Randle EVER been pulled? Meanwhile, we’ve heard Obi say he plays more confidently knowing he’s not getting yanked if he makes a bad decision. The kids are on more of a choke collar, until recently, whereas Randle runs wild. Another notable item is his insistence to not start Quickley. Only once the team was decimated, and out of the playoffs, did he finally give IQ the reins last season—along with Obi. And we all know the results. Triple doubles, 3-pointers galore, 42 points…all things that happened when they shared the floor. As we saw last night, the best things seem to happen when 1 or both of Obi/IQ are on the floor. Obi was +23 last night, and Randle was -12. IQ spurred the run that got the Knicks ahead by double digits so that Brunson could close the game.
Why do this? Why stifle development by playing vets? Because Thibs desires to win. That’s his goal. I wonder too…does the front office expect too much of Thibs? My understanding is he’s been told to win—perhaps trying to make the Knicks attractive for stars? Nobody has told him to “develop the kids, and if we lose 50 games, it’s okay.” Thibs wants to win—at all costs. There’s no plausible explanation for why he would continue to rely on Randle and Point Guard Alec Burks last year, along with playing Taj so many minutes at center, instead of Jericho Sims. Not to mention continuing to start Evan Fournier once the season was effectively lost. And we could get into why the front office does this, but I’ll defer to Donald Stewart’s article which delves into our front office. But again…Thibs. Stubborn.
Time For a Change?
So again, this brings me to the question, is he the right coach for this year’s team? He was two years ago. I don’t see anyone else getting more out of that roster. He (stubbornly) refused to be adaptable last year. And now this year, it seems that he feels desperate to keep his job. Over the past several games, we’ve seen mass confusion with rotations.
Quentin Grimes goes from “situational” to “starter who plays 15 minutes” and back to “situational.”
Are Obi/Julius playing together? And it results in a win? Seems like something that Knicks Twitter has been screaming about.
And then different starters at center over the past few games?
Cam Reddish starting after playing just the end of the 2nd and 4th quarters in a recent game? All reports indicate he despised acquiring Reddish, but now he’s relying on him as a defensive mainstay.
A 9-man rotation to kick off the West Coast trip (with no Fournier/Grimes appearance)? It almost seems like Coach is trying to keep his job, but also isn’t sure what players he wants on the floor, given that this came just after he played Fournier the entire 4th quarter ahead of Barrett/Brunson on Sunday.
One other note. We have an 8-7 record. A record that I’m convinced feels more like 3-11 if we didn’t have Jalen Brunson. That would certainly mean Thibs is fired, right? I’m not sure.
I like our coach to a point. I think he’s intelligent and a proven winner and his stubborn ways have led to a modicum of success. But, he is NOT a fit for this team. In his defense, it’s also not a well-designed roster (again, I defer…you need to go see Donald Stewart’s article for more). But if he allows Randle to run amok with no consequence for bad defensive effort, for playing out of the offense, and continues to let Fournier onto the court, the Knicks will lose many more games than they win.
My guess? I don’t see a world where Leon Rose embraces the tank, nor do I see NY making a splashy all-NBA-type trade in season. I will be surprised to see him fired before 2023 hits. We will continue to be very average at best…and Thibs will continue to over-rely on Randle and let him do whatsoever he wishes on offense, whereas defense is optional for him. Obi will languish on the bench at 17 minutes per game. I also fear he will reinsert Fournier into the rotation at the expense of Grimes/Quickley/Reddish.
Final prediction? We will be back at 38 wins…and be that team with no real direction—even with an interim coach. Neither tanking nor winning. No Man’s Land. The 10th seed bounced in the play-in game and picked 12th in the lottery.