Things to Watch for This Season

What Will the Knicks Accomplish This Year and What Will Their Story Be?

Image Credit: Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images

It’s official, Knicks basketball is back! Pre-season games are here now. Perhaps by the time you read this, New York and Boston’s C-Squad will have engaged in a mostly mundane competition and New York will be preparing for the Timberwolves, but it’s far from mundane to many of us fans. This is the start of what we hope to be that next step towards contending for a championship. I’d like to just entertain some items we should be watching for to see how the season goes and what morsels of entertainment we can glean from it.

Where will New York finish in the standings?

The various betting affiliations (BetMGM, Draftkings, Fanduel, etc) have placed the Knicks’ over/under win totals between 44.5 and 46.5. This is a team that just won 47 games last year, that’s been improved by adding Donte DiVincenzo, and will have young players presumably taking steps forward. Also, we have another year of the revelation known as Jalen Brunson. I personally am anticipating 48-52 wins total and a 4th seed finish (behind Boston and Milwaukee for sure) with a chance to usurp Cleveland from the 3rd seed. This team is superbly deep. They collectively have the best grouping of 4th-9th players in a rotation of any team in the league, and perhaps 4th-12th when you add in Deuce McBride, Jericho Sims, and Evan Fournier. The team can withstand players missing games and still sustain their same level of play. Only a long term injury to Brunson or Julius Randle would raise concern.

How many playoff games will New York win?

If I were a betting connoisseur (connoisseur is not how I’d describe my bets…impulsive joker is more apt) I’d speculate this line would be set at an over/under of 5.5 playoff wins. That would mean the Knicks win at least their first round series and another 1-2 games in the 2nd round, perhaps identical to last year.

Or…they stumble a bit, hit the play-in, and then somehow pull off a first round upset.

The former is more likely. This team is good and seems to be projected as a top 5 team in the East by many. That said, if I’m betting on my own line, I’m taking the over. I am buying into the fact that when Hart was traded here, he put the Knicks on a 55+ win pace over the course of a full season. I believe they are capable of stretching a team to at least 6 games in round 2 or, perhaps, even sashaying their way into the conference finals.

How will the minutes be divvied up in the rotation?

We’re well aware of the depth the Knicks have, but this will also create night to night consternation for players, fans, and perhaps even the coaching staff. The team has 240 minutes available to use (48 minutes x 5 positions is the math there). Tom Thibodeau preaches rim protection, so you know you’re getting 48 minutes of Mitchell Robinson/Isiah Hartenstein and possibly Sims if foul trouble occurs. Julius and Jalen are going to get their mid-30s total. Let’s say a total of 72 minutes for them combined. We’re at 120 minutes remaining for Grimes, Josh Hart, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, and recently signed Donte DiVincenzo. This leaves an average of 24 minutes for each. However, all 5 played over that amount per game last year. So what happens? Let’s assume that Grimes and Barrett continue to start and combine for 60 minutes. Hart played roughly 30 himself after the trade. That eats up 90 of the 120 minutes. Vegas believes that Quickley’s minutes will remain roughly the same, seeing as how he is currently sitting as the favorite at +800 odds for 6th man (on Fanduel’s Sportsbook as of 10/12/2023). If this all holds true, then New York signed DiVincenzo to have him play…garbage time?

Hardly the case. He’s the newly signed $50 million man. It will be interesting to watch what happens. Reflecting back on last season, after the Hart trade, it was common to see RJ not on the floor during the close of the 4th quarter. Might this continue? Could we see he and Grimes both dip down into the 20s in minutes/game? Or will each get their own time, granted by Tom Thibodeau (finally) relenting on players missing games and perhaps taking a more cautious approach to milder injuries? Hard to imagine Thibodeau doing such a thing. I believe we will see Grimes/Barrett’s minutes affected the most. Thibodeau will want defense on floor during closing minutes plus Brunson/Randle/Robinson. The likely candidates are Hart, Quickley, Grimes, and then DiVincenzo and Barrett. Effort plus the proverbial “hot hand” will dictate the decision.

Who is this year’s key addition via trade?

The lockout year brought along Derrick Rose via shipping out Dennis Smith. The next year was Kevin Knox essentially swapped out for Cam Reddish. Then last year we saw Reddish conveyed to Portland for the aforementioned Hart.

This season? I think Leon makes another move—a key subtraction rather than addition. The obvious candidate is to send out Fournier’s contract to some team looking for offense off of the bench, but to venture a guess on who is too much right now. The return wouldn’t be significant but perhaps it winds up being an intriguing young big or a 2nd round future selection and expiring salary filler. I don’t see a big name player or even a potential rotation guy showing up in January/February, as was the case the past 3 seasons.

Which of the “Young Guys” will take a leap?

I will make this quick and easy. There are several candidates. Barrett, Quickley, Grimes, Robinson…all are still young. McBride/Sims are also, but they’re unlikely to see enough floor time to make a leap. Even the “vets” are young, with Brunson/Hart/DiVincenzo all around that mid-late 20s range. But…I’ll link you to an article by Michael Grogins of this same substack that will be my answer. Grimes is poised to make that next step, given his work ethic and quick trigger. He’s a 40% 3 point shooter waiting to happen, with strong defensive skills and the ability to attack closeouts with great bursts of speed. I am anticipating 14-15 ppg with that 3 point accuracy to boot.

What will Julius do?

We’re entering season 5 of Randle.

1st season, poor.

2nd season, all NBA and Most Improved

3rd season, poor.

4th season, all NBA again.

Does he revert back? Or will the continued, developing chemistry with Brunson and the rest of the rotation help maintain Julius’s All-Star form?

I buy into Jalen Brunson as a real dynamo for changing a franchise. The play of the Knicks last year and even Brunson’s own continued improvement over the season was astounding and the re-elevation of Randle back to All-NBA form doesn’t go unnoticed. I believe this most recent iteration of Randle is what we will continue to see. A player who is capable of dominating with those around him to take pressure off and who can also affect his own performance by having a poor mental game, through either officiating or his own missed shots. But that happened less last season than before, and I believe that’s due to the effect that Brunson and Hart had on the team both on and off the floor.

What’s next for Jalen Brunson?

It’s unclear what the expectation was from New York when signing Brunson. It felt like a shrewd move to just get someone who could be a consistent 16/6 player in terms of points and assists. Basically, overpaying to get someone in who comes from a winning culture and background, if you will. But New York found gold with the best signing of the offseason—and perhaps the best free agent contract of their history. Brunson was a revelation, averaging 24 points and 6 assists per game, with 3.5 rebounds to boot—impressive for someone under 6 feet tall. He also showed a prolific three point shot, including pull-ups as he hit above 40% for the season. But…does he have another gear?

If you’ve listened to Fred Katz from The Athletic on any podcast he’s appeared in over the past few weeks, you’ve heard him say that many within the Knicks organization think Brunson has another level within his reach. That may be true. He was averaging 28 points per game over the back half of the season, and essentially was the only one who could score against Miami during the playoffs. He was referred to as the Captain during his FIBA play and is regarded highly around the league. He is someone that likely should be on a max contract and was praised as a smart signing by the Knicks once the season ended.

What are your items to watch for with this year’s Knicks team? Leave them in the comments! Thanks for reading!

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